SDcamps•演辩营春季辩论常规课程及备赛课程以专业的演讲和辩论教练为教练团队，采用成熟的培训课程体系，覆盖从小学1年级到中学生的年级组别，涵盖的培训课程内容包括基础班、中级班、晋级班、高级班/备赛班全部范围。&nbsp 常规的美辩课程及BP、WSDC、AP课程： 详见下文课程具体说明。 人工智能辩题备赛课程： 2023 外研社英语辩论挑战赛：The development of artificial intelligence has done more good than harm to humanity. （人工智能的开发利大于弊） 2023 NHSDLC春

Now, this is often caricatured, as I have here, as a fear that armies of malicious robots will attack us.现在我们时常会看到这样一些讽刺漫画，我们总会担心受到一些不怀好意的机器人军队的攻击。But that isn&#39t the most likely scenario.但这不是最可能出现的事情。It&#39s not that our machines will become spontaneously malevolent.我们的机器不会自动变得邪恶。The concern is r

It&#39s as though we stand before two doors. Behind door number one, we stop making progress in building intelligent machines.我们就像站在了两扇门前。在第一扇门后面，我们停下打造智能机器的脚步。Our computer hardware and software just stops getting better for some reason.某些原因也使我们停止了对电脑软件和硬件的升级。Now take a moment to consider why this m

Another reason we&#39re told not to worry is that these machines can&#39t help but share our values because they will be literally extensions of ourselves.另外一个试图安慰我们的理由是，那些机器必须拥有和我们一样的价值观，因为它们将会是我们自身的延伸。They&#39ll be grafted onto our brains, and we&#39ll essentially become their limbic systems.它们将会被

So what would apes like ourselves do in this circumstance?那在这种情况下，像我们这样的“大猩猩”还能有什么用呢？Well, we&#39d be free to play Frisbee and give each other massages.我们可以悠闲地玩飞盘，给彼此做按摩。Add some LSD and some questionable wardrobe choices, and the whole world could be like Burning Man.服用一些迷药，穿一些奇装异服，整个世界都沉浸在狂欢节之中。No

No one seems to notice that referencing the time horizon is a total non sequitur.似乎没有人注意到以时间作为参考系是得不出合理的结论的。If intelligence is just a matter of information processing,如果说智慧只包括信息处理，and we continue to improve our machines, we will produce some form of superintelligence.然后我们继续改善这些机器，那么我们终将生产出超级智能。And w

Sorry, a chicken. There&#39s no reason for me to make this talk more depressing than it needs to be.抱歉，母鸡的位置应该在这。这个演讲已经够严肃了，开个玩笑轻松一下。It seems overwhelmingly likely, however, that the spectrum of intelligence extends much further than we currently conceive,然而，很可能的情况是，智慧谱线上的内容已远远超出了我们的认知，and if we bui

It&#39s crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn&#39t matter, because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone.我们要知道这个进程的速度并不重要，因为任何进程都足够让我们走进死胡同。We don&#39t need Moore&#39s law to continue. We don&#39t need exponential progress. We just need to keep going.甚至不需要考虑摩尔定律，也不需要用指数函数来衡

I&#39m going to talk about a failure of intuition that many of us suffer from.我想谈论一种我们很多人都经历过的来自于直觉上的失误。It&#39s really a failure to detect a certain kind of danger.它让人们无法察觉到一种特定危险的存在。I&#39m going to describe a scenario that I think is both terrifying and likely to occur, and that&#39s not a good com

If we want AI to evolve in a way that helps humans,如果我们想让人工智能的演进方式是对人类有帮助的，then we need to define the goals and strategies that enable that path now.那么我们现在就得要定义目标和策略，来让那条路成为可能。What I&#39d like to see is something that fits well with humans, with our culture and with the environment.我想要看见的东西是要能够和人类、我

I work on helping computers communicate about the world around us.我致力于协助电脑和我们周围世界的沟通。There are a lot of ways to do this, and I like to focus on helping computers to talk about what they see and understand.是有很多方法可以做到这一点，我喜欢专注于协助电脑去谈论它们看到和理解的内容。Given a scene like this, a modern computer-vision algorit

If we all focus on opening up the discussion on AI with foresight towards the future,若我们都能把焦点放在开放地带着对未来的远见来讨论人工智能，this will help create a general conversation and awareness about what AI is now,这就能创造出一般性的谈话和意识，关于人工智能现在是什么样子、what it can become and all the things that we need to do in order to enable

So, digging more deeply into this,因此，深入挖掘这一点，a few years ago I began working on helping computers to generate human-like stories from sequences of images.我几年前开始致力于从图像序列帮助电脑产生类似人类的故事。So, one day, I was working with my computer to ask it what it thought about a trip to Australia.所以，有一天，我正在用电脑工作时，询问它对澳

I realized that, as I worked on improving AI task by task, dataset by dataset,我了解到，当我努力在改善人工智能，一个任务一个任务、一个数据集一个数据集地改善，that I was creating massive gaps, holes and blind spots in what it could understand.结果我却在它能了解什么上创造出了大量的隔阂、漏洞以及盲点。And while doing so, I was encoding all kinds of biases.这么做的时候，我是在把各种偏

I realized then that we had to think deeply about how the technology we work on today looks in five years, in 10 years.那时我了解到，我们必须要深入思考我们现今努力发展的科技，在五年、十年后会是什么样子。Humans evolve slowly, with time to correct for issues in the interaction of humans and their environment.人类演进很慢，有时间可以去修正在人类互动以及其环境中的议题。In c

So, how about having our cake and eating it...所以，为什么不干脆坐享其成...with AGI that&#39s not enslaved but treats us well because its values are aligned with ours?使用非奴役的AGI，因为价值观和我们一致，愿意和我们并肩作战的AGI？This is the gist of what Eliezer Yudkowsky has called &quotfriendly AI,&quot and if we can do this, it could be

After 13.8 billion years of cosmic history, our universe has woken up and become aware of itself.在138亿年的历史之后，我们的宇宙终于觉醒了，并开始有了自我意识。From a small blue planet, tiny, conscious parts of our universe从一颗蓝色的小星球，宇宙中那些有了微小意识的部分，have begun gazing out into the cosmos with telescopes, discovering something humbl

Now, hang on. Do you folks want the future that&#39s politically right or left?不过先别急。你们希望未来的政治是左派还是右派？Do you want the pious society with strict moral rules,你们想要一个有严格道德准则的社会，or do you an hedonistic free-for-all, more like Burning Man 24/7?还是一个人人可参与的享乐主义社会，更像是个无时无刻不在运转的火人盛会？Do you want beautiful beach

So don&#39t get me wrong here.别误会我的意思。I&#39m not talking about space travel, merely about humanity&#39s metaphorical journey into the future.我不是在谈论太空旅行，只是打个比方，人类进入未来的这个旅程。So one option that some of my AI colleagues like is to build superintelligence and keep it under human control,我的一些研究人工智能的同事很喜欢的一

My friend Jaan Tallinn likes to point out that just as with rocketry, it&#39s not enough to make our technology powerful.我的朋友扬·塔林常说，这就像是火箭学一样，只让我们的科技拥有强大的力量是不够的。We also have to figure out, if we&#39re going to be really ambitious, how to steer it and where we want to go with it.如果我们有足够的雄心壮志，就应当想出如何控

We invented the car, screwed up a bunch of times -- invented the traffic light, the seat belt and the airbag,我们发明了汽车，又一不小心搞砸了很多次--发明了红绿灯，安全带和安全气囊，but with more powerful technology like nuclear weapons and AGI, learning from mistakes is a lousy strategy, don&#39t you think?但对于更强大的科技，像是核武器和AGI，要去从错误中学

And whose goals should these be, anyway? Which goals should they be?不过，这些目标到底是谁的目标？这些目标到底是什么目标？This brings us to the third part of our rocket metaphor: the destination.这就引出了火箭比喻的第三部分：目的地。We&#39re making AI more powerful, trying to figure out how to steer it, but where do we want to go with it?我们要让人工

One is that we should avoid an arms race and lethal autonomous weapons.第一，我们需要避免军备竞赛，以及致命的自动化武器出现。The idea here is that any science can be used for new ways of helping people or new ways of harming people.其中的想法是，任何科学都可以用新的方式来帮助人们，同样也可以以新的方式对我们造成伤害。For example, biology and chemistry are much more lik

Alright, reality check: Are we going to get AGI any time soon?好了，回归现实：我们很快就会有AGI吗？Some famous AI researchers, like Rodney Brooks, think it won&#39t happen for hundreds of years.一些著名的AI研究者，如罗德尼·布鲁克斯，认为一百年内是没有可能的。But others, like Google DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis, are more optimistic and are work

So all this amazing recent progress in AI really begs the question: How far will it go?所以近来，这些惊人的人工智能进步让大家不禁想问：它到底能达到怎样的程度？I like to think about this question in terms of this abstract landscape of tasks,我在思考这个问题时，想从工作任务中的抽象地景来切入，where the elevation represents how hard it is for AI to do each task a