We recently saw a case where some researchers made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.我们最近观察到一个案例，发现一些研究员将H5N1禽流感病毒变得更强效。It already has a 70 percent mortality rate if you get it, but it&#39s hard to get.如果你受它感染，你的死亡概率已经会达到70%，但是它并不轻易传染。Engineers, by moving around a small number of genetic ch

I study the future of crime and terrorism, and frankly, I&#39m afraid. I&#39m afraid by what I see.我研究的是犯罪和恐怖主义的未来。坦白地说，我感到害怕。我对我在研究中了解到的事情感到害怕。I sincerely want to believe that technology can bring us the techno-utopia that we&#39ve been promised,我真诚地希望自己能够相信，科技可以带给我们对我们的承诺中的科技乌托邦。but, you see, I&#3

So how will criminals abuse this? Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.那么罪犯将如何滥用这项技术呢？利用合成生物学，你能做一些相当优雅的事情。For example, I predict that we will move away from a plant-based narcotics world to a synthetic one.例如，我预测我们将会离开这个植物配方毒品的时代而进入合成毒品的时代。Why do you need the plants anymo

And all of this matters greatly, because public safety to me is the most important function of government.所有这些事项都很重要，因为我认为，保证公共安全是政府最重要的职能。If we&#39re not safe, we can&#39t be educated, we can&#39t be healthy,如果人身安全无法保证，我们就不能接受教育，we can&#39t do any of the other things we want to do in our lives.就不能保

Of course, it&#39s not just about stealing things. There are other avenues of technology that criminals can exploit.当然，不单单是偷取东西。还有很多的科技途径可供罪犯开发。Many of you will remember this super cute video from the last TED, but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.你们中的很多人将会铭记这段在最近的TED里，播放的非常可爱的视频，然而不是所

Now, moneyball, as many of you know, is what the Oakland A&#39s did,正如大家所知，点球成金，是奥克兰运动家棒球队的方法，where they used smart data and statistics to figure out how to pick players that would help them win games,他们使用了智能数据和统计学，找出如何挑选球员的办法，这将有助于他们赢得比赛，and they went from a system that was based on baseball scouts

We consistently underestimate what criminals and terrorists can do.我们一直低估了罪犯和恐怖分子能做到的事情。Technology has made our world increasingly open, and for the most part, that&#39s great, but all of this openness may have unintended consequences.科技已经让我们的世界越来越开放。当然，在大多数情况下，这是好事，但是这个开放性也可能会造成始料未及的后果。Consider the

What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool is this -- it&#39s a dashboard.如果他们使用了这个风险评估工具，你就会看到这个--一个评分板。At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score, six of course being the highest,在顶部的，是新的刑事犯罪活动评分，六当然是最高分，and then in the middle you see, &quotElevated risk of violence.&quot然后在中间你可

So I went out and built a phenomenal team of data scientists and researchers and statisticians to build a universal risk assessment tool,所以我组建了一个出色的团队，由数据科学家和研究人员还有统计人员组成，建立一个通用的风险评估工具，so that every single judge in the United States of America can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.这样一来，全

Law enforcement is currently a closed system. It&#39s nation-based, while the threat is international.执法活动在当下仍属一个封闭的系统。它虽以国家为基础，但威胁是国际性的。Policing doesn&#39t scale globally. At least, it hasn&#39t, and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences are outdated in the new world into

The second thing that happened is that I spent the day in the Camden, New Jersey police department.第二件事是我在卡姆登的新泽西州警察局耗了一天。Now, at that time, Camden, New Jersey, was the most dangerous city in America.当时，新泽西州的卡姆登是美国最危险的城市。I ran the Camden Police Department because of that.我跑了一趟卡姆登警察局就是因为这个原因。I spent

Whether or not you realize it, we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,不论你们是否意识到，我们即将迎来一场科技军备竞赛，an arms race between people who are using technology for good and those who are using it for ill.这场军备竞赛的双方，是运用科技行善的一方和滥用科技作恶的一方，The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now. I can

In 2007, I became the attorney general of the state of New Jersey.2007年，我担任了新泽西州的司法部长。Before that, I&#39d been a criminal prosecutor, first in the Manhattan district attorney&#39s office,在那之前，我曾是一名刑事检察官，先是在曼哈顿地区检查官办公室，and then at the United States Department of Justice.后来是在国家司法部。But when I became th

As we move forward, we&#39ll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.随着人类社会向前发展，我们也会见证很多新科技的诞生，比如物联网。Every day we&#39re connecting more and more of our lives to the Internet, which means that the Internet of Things will soon be the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.我们日复一日地将越来越多的个人生活与网络相

We all worry about our privacy settings on Facebook, but the fact of the matter is, our openness can be used against us.我们都为我们在Facebook上的隐私设置感到烦恼，但是问题的实际情况在于，我们的坦率可能会被用来伤害我们自己。Terrorists are doing this. A search engine can determine who shall live and who shall die. This is the world that we live in

So I decided to focus on using data and analytics to help make the most critical decision in public safety,所以我决定将重点集中在使用数据和分析，以在公共安全方面帮助作出最关键的判断，and that decision is the determination of whether, when someone has been arrested,这一决定是判断已经被逮捕的某个人，whether they pose a risk to public safety and should be

The reason for this is the way we make decisions.是我们做决定的方式导致的这种结果。Judges have the best intentions when they make these decisions about risk, but they&#39re making them subjectively.法官怀着善意做出这些有风险的决定，但，是主观的决定。They&#39re like the baseball scouts 20 years ago who were using their instinct and their expe

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