If you look at what happened -- this little black line is as fast as man ever flew,如果你看一看发生了什么 -- 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快，and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters and the blue line is commercial air transport.这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员，蓝色代表商业飞机运输。You notice here&#39s a big jump when I was a little ki

Let&#39s take a snapshot at aviation. And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened.让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。曾有四年短暂的美好时期，那时发生了许多奇迹。It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, &quotOoh, hey, I can do that.&quot那段时期开始于1908年，当怀特兄弟在巴

I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem. We&#39re entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space.我想从这里开始，休斯顿，我们有个问题。我们已经有二十年没有进展了，在人类太空飞行方面。In fact, we&#39ve regressed. We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth to go out an

Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity they die out when they&#39re replaced by something else.简短地谈一下发明创造的周期，周期发展时会衍生许多活动，当这些活动被其他活动取代，此周期就灭亡了。These things tend to happen every 25 years. 40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all ki

Not the bank&#39s computer or Lockheed&#39s computer, but the home computer was for games.不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑，家用电脑是用于游戏的。For a whole decade it was for fun -- we didn&#39t even know what it was for.对于整整一代来说，它是用于消遣--我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry, big deve

Well, first of all, what&#39s going to happen next? The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.那么，首先，接下来会发生什么？第一产业将会数量巨大，参与者众多。There&#39s another one announced just last week. And it will be sub-orbital.上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。这次飞行将会是亚轨道。And the reason it has to be sub-orbital is, there is no

I think what we&#39ll do is we&#39ll see a successful, very successful, private space flight industry.我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的，非常成功的私人太空飞船行业。Whether we&#39re first or not really doesn&#39t matter. The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde.无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机。

They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that&#39s going on after that.他们被巨大的进步所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进步。There were a couple of examples here. The military fighters had a -- highest-performance military airplane was the SR71.这里有两个例子。军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机是SR71。It went a whole life cycle, got too

You remember the space race in the &#3960s was for national prestige, because we lost the first two milestones.你们还记得60年代的太空竞赛是为了国家的声誉，因为我们丢失了最初的两个里程碑。We didn&#39t lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it -- you can argue that&#39

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